The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize: What We Know and What We Don’t

With the announcement now just days away, the Nobel Peace Prize 2025 stands at the center of international attention. While the laureate(s) remain undisclosed as of today, a closer look at the nomination process, the candidate field, and the political dynamics offers insight into what to watch when the committee makes its choice on 10 October.

Laureate(s) Still Under Wraps — Official Reveal Imminent

No winner has been confirmed yet; the Norwegian Nobel Committee will officially announce the 2025 Peace Prize recipient(s) on 10 October 2025 in Oslo.¹ This date traditionally precedes the December award ceremony, held on the anniversary of Alfred Nobel’s death.²
Until the announcement, all public speculation about winners rests on incomplete information—and the Nobel Committee continues to uphold its strict confidentiality around nominations and deliberations.³

Because of that veil, we cannot yet describe the achievements that secured the prize. That said, Nobel Peace Prizes historically reward sustained and demonstrable contributions to diplomacy, human rights, disarmament, conflict resolution, or institutional peacebuilding. Examples from recent years include disarmament movements, survivors’ advocacy groups, human-rights defenders, and organizations that act as mediators in conflict zones.

Inside the Nomination Process

Although the laureate is not yet known, the framework governing how the Prize is awarded is public and reveals much about the rigor and discretion built into the selection system.

Who Can Nominate & When

• The deadline for nominations was 31 January 2025, after which no new submissions are accepted for this cycle.⁴

• Not every citizen or activist can submit a nomination. Eligible nominators include:
    • Members of national parliaments, government ministers, and heads of state
    • Judges at international courts (e.g., the International Court of Justice, Permanent Court of Arbitration)
    • Professors of law, history, social sciences, theology, philosophy
    • Directors of peace or foreign-policy research institutes
    • Former laureates and board members of Nobel Peace Prize–winning organizations
    • Current or former advisers/members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee (with some procedural restrictions)⁵

This restricted nominator pool is meant to ensure that submissions come from individuals with standing in academia, diplomacy, governance, or peace work. The Nobel statutes make clear that self-nomination is not valid and that the Prize should reflect merit over popularity.

Number of Nominations & Secrecy

• For 2025, the Nobel Institute registered 338 valid nominations—244 individuals and 94 organizations—marking a rise from the 286 nominations seen in 2024.⁶

• Importantly, neither the identities of nominators nor the full list of nominees is revealed to the public until 50 years later, per Nobel Foundation rules.⁷

• The Norwegian Nobel Committee meets after the submission deadline to vet, validate, and possibly add names at its first meeting, but after that, no additional nominations may be accepted.⁴

Shortlisting, Review & Decision

Once nominations are in, the Committee undertakes a multi-stage process:

1. Preliminary review and validation (February)

2. Shortlist creation (March or soon thereafter)

3. In-depth assessment by internal and external experts (spring–summer)

4. Committee deliberations, often monthly, narrowing candidates

5. Final voting in early October: the selection is made by majority vote if unanimity is not reached

6. Announcement on 10 October, followed by the award ceremony on 10 December⁸

The Committee emphasizes that the decision is final and not open to appeal.⁸

Names in the Public Realm: Speculation & Disclosures

Because of the 50-year secrecy rule, any public names are either nominees whose nominators have publicly disclosed them (even if the Committee cannot confirm) or journalistic speculation. Several individuals and entities have attracted attention in the 2025 cycle:

Donald Trump

• Multiple media outlets and public figures have claimed Trump has been nominated, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.⁹

• However, many of the announcements occurred after the January deadline, rendering them invalid for this year’s cycle.¹⁰

• Some observers believe Trump’s aggressive push for the prize—public appeals, diplomatic claim-making—may work against him, as the committee typically disfavors overt campaigning.¹¹

• Experts quoted in NDTV analysis assert that Trump’s recent foreign policy moves conflict with the Nobel ethos of multilateral cooperation and peace.¹²

• Bottom line: while Trump is a high-profile name in the discourse, many analysts consider his actual chances slim.¹²

Other Mentioned Figures & Organizations

• Irwin Cotler, a Canadian human-rights lawyer and former MP, appears on publicly circulated nominee lists.¹³

• Zuriel Oduwole, a child education advocate, was reportedly nominated by U.S. institutions and a senator in January 2025.¹⁴

• NGOs and institutions frequently suggested in peace discourse—though not necessarily confirmed—include international courts, human-rights bodies, mediation groups, and civil-society organizations active in conflict zones.

• Some nominees emerge from regional or local nominate campaigns; for instance, JA Worldwide, a youth development NGO, announced via its website that it had been nominated.¹⁵

While these names make headlines, the Nobel Committee has not vetted or confirmed them publicly, and their candidacies must await official disclosure decades hence.

What Matters: Key Factors and Potential Surprise Picks

In the lead-up to the announcement, experts highlight several lenses through which the 2025 decision may be viewed:

1. Sustained impact — Laureates typically have a track record over years, not just a single headline move.

2. Multilateralism over unilateralism — Projects or negotiations involving cooperation between nations or actors often carry more weight.

3. Risk and courage — Many laureates work under threat or at personal cost in fragile or hostile environments.

4. Symbolism vs. substance — The Committee has, at times, chosen symbolic laureates (e.g., for human-rights advocacy), but it tends to favor those with measurable outcomes.

5. Avoiding overt politicization — While politics inevitably intersect with peace, the Committee usually refrains from overtly partisan choices, especially in contemporary geopolitical flashpoints.

History also reminds us that surprises are not rare. The Peace Prize has sometimes gone to lesser-known actors whose work, though underappreciated at the moment, resonates deeply within particular conflicts or social movements.

What to Watch on 10 October

When the Nobel Committee speaks, it will also publish an explanation of why it selected the laureate(s)—a document closely examined by scholars, diplomats, activists, and media alike. The rationale often shapes how the world interprets the Prize beyond mere symbolism: it signals moral priorities, diplomatic direction, and which regions or issues the Nobel Committee aims to highlight.

Once announced:

• Expect a global media blitz dissecting the winner’s background and impact.

• Watch reactions from governments, NGOs, and the regions most connected to the laureate’s work.

• Observe how the Nobel decision resonates amid ongoing global crises—conflicts, humanitarian emergencies, climate displacement, and rising geopolitical tensions.

In the coming days, the world will finally know who the 2025 Peace Prize goes to—and why. Until then, all eyes remain on Oslo.